Are global freight rates really lower than 10 years ago?

Yes, Sea-Intelligence data shows 40-65% below 2008/09 in real, inflation-adjusted terms — despite spikes.

Why are ocean freight rates falling in real terms?

Overcapacity, mega-ships, smart shipper contracts, and inflation outpacing nominal hikes erode carrier power.

Will Red Sea disruptions raise freight rates permanently?

Short-term yes via surcharges, but real-term data suggests only modest, temporary lifts — back to lows soon.

Global Freight Rates 40-65% Lower Than 2008/09 [Real Terms]

Everyone braced for endless rate hikes post-pandemic. Instead, Sea-Intelligence drops a bombshell: global freight rates sit 40-65% below 2008/09 levels in real terms. Shippers rejoice — carriers? Not so much.

Supply Chain Beat Apr 14, 2026 4 min read

Chart showing global freight rates below inflation-adjusted 2008/09 baseline from Sea-Intelligence analysis

⚡ Key Takeaways

Global freight rates 40% below 2009, 65% under 2008 in real terms per Sea-Intelligence. 𝕏
Shippers gain massive long-term savings despite volatility from Red Sea, pandemics. 𝕏
Carriers' pricing power eroded by overcapacity, echoing 1980s airline deregulation. 𝕏